COVID-19 mortality rate and its associated factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria

COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. Thus, we aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria. This was a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data from all 37 States in Nigeria between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome variable was mortality amongst persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction. Incidence rates of COVID-19 mortality was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by total person-time (in days) contributed by the entire study population and presented per 100,000 person-days with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 mortality. Findings are presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% CI. The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died;the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of COVID-19 mortality was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98–57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60–20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35–2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11–2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59–3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20–4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26–5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90–12∙54)]. Relative to South-West, residency in the South-South and North-West was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality in both waves. In conclusion, the rate of COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria was higher in the first wave than in the second wave, suggesting an improvement in public health response and clinical care in the second wave. However, this needs to be interpreted with caution given the inherent limitations of the country's surveillance system during the study.

Healthcare workers knowledge of cholera multi-stranded interventions and its determining factors in North-East Nigeria: planning and policy implications.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge of multi-stranded cholera interventions (including case management, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), surveillance/laboratory methods, coordination, and vaccination) is crucial to the implementation of these interventions in healthcare facilities, especially in conflict-affected settings where cholera burden is particularly high. We aimed to assess Nigerian HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions and identify the associated factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire with HCWs from 120 healthcare facilities in Adamawa and Bauchi States, North-East Nigeria. A knowledge score was created by assigning a point for each correct response. HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions, calculated as a score, was recoded for ease of interpretation as follows: 0-50 (low); 51-70 (moderate); ≥ 71 (high). Additionally, we defined the inadequacy of HCWs' knowledge of cholera interventions based on a policy-relevant threshold of equal or lesser than 75 scores for an intervention. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the adequacy of knowledge score. RESULTS: Overall, 490 HCWs participated in the study (254 in Adamawa and 236 in Bauchi), with a mean age of 35.5 years. HCWs' knowledge score was high for surveillance/laboratory methods, moderate for case management, WASH, and vaccination, and low for coordination. HCWs' knowledge of coordination improved with higher cadre, working in urban- or peri-urban-based healthcare facilities, and secondary education; cholera case management and vaccination knowledge improved with post-secondary education, working in Bauchi State and urban areas, previous training in cholera case management and response to a cholera outbreak-working in peri-urban areas had a negative effect. HCWs' knowledge of surveillance/laboratory methods improved with a higher cadre, 1-year duration in current position, secondary or post-secondary education, previous training in cholera case management and response to a cholera outbreak. However, HCWs' current position had both positive and negative impacts on their WASH knowledge. CONCLUSIONS: HCWs in both study locations recorded a considerable knowledge of multi-stranded cholera interventions. While HCWs' demographic characteristics appeared irrelevant in determining their knowledge of cholera interventions, geographic location and experiences from the current position, training and involvement in cholera outbreak response played a significant role.

Interventions for Maintenance of Essential Health Service Delivery during the COVID-19 Response in Uganda, between March 2020 and April 2021.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed health systems globally and affected the delivery of health services. We conducted a study in Uganda to describe the interventions adopted to maintain the delivery of other health services. METHODS: We reviewed documents and interviewed 21 key informants. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify themes using the World Health Organization health system building blocks as a guiding framework. RESULTS: Governance strategies included the establishment of coordination committees and the development and dissemination of guidelines. Infrastructure and commodity strategies included the review of drug supply plans and allowing emergency orders. Workforce strategies included the provision of infection prevention and control equipment, recruitment and provision of incentives. Service delivery modifications included the designation of facilities for COVID-19 management, patient self-management, dispensing drugs for longer periods and the leveraging community patient networks to distribute medicines. However, multi-month drug dispensing led to drug stock-outs while community drug distribution was associated with stigma. CONCLUSIONS: Health service maintenance during emergencies requires coordination to harness existing health system investments. The essential services continuity committee coordinated efforts to maintain services and should remain a critical element of emergency response. Self-management and leveraging patient networks should address stigma to support service continuity in similar settings and strengthen service delivery beyond the pandemic.

Epidemiology, diagnostics and factors associated with mortality during a cholera epidemic in Nigeria, October 2020-October 2021: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria reported an upsurge in cholera cases in October 2020, which then transitioned into a large, disseminated epidemic for most of 2021. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology, diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits and the factors associated with mortality during the epidemic. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of national surveillance data. SETTING: 33 of 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory) in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who met cholera case definition (a person of any age with acute watery diarrhoea, with or without vomiting) between October 2020 and October 2021 within the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control surveillance data. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attack rate (AR; per 100 000 persons), case fatality rate (CFR; %) and accuracy of RDT performance compared with culture using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, individual factors associated with cholera deaths and hospitalisation were presented as adjusted OR with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 93 598 cholera cases and 3298 deaths (CFR: 3.5%) were reported across 33 of 37 states in Nigeria within the study period. The proportions of cholera cases were higher in men aged 5-14 years and women aged 25-44 years. The overall AR was 46.5 per 100 000 persons. The North-West region recorded the highest AR with 102 per 100 000. Older age, male gender, residency in the North-Central region and severe dehydration significantly increased the odds of cholera deaths. The cholera RDT had excellent diagnostic accuracy (AUROC=0.91; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Nigeria with a high mortality rate. Thus, we recommend making RDT kits more widely accessible for improved surveillance and prompt case management across the country.

Presentations of children to emergency departments across Europe and the COVID-19 pandemic: A multinational observational study.

BACKGROUND: During the initial phase of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, reduced numbers of acutely ill or injured children presented to emergency departments (EDs). Concerns were raised about the potential for delayed and more severe presentations and an increase in diagnoses such as diabetic ketoacidosis and mental health issues. This multinational observational study aimed to study the number of children presenting to EDs across Europe during the early COVID-19 pandemic and factors influencing this and to investigate changes in severity of illness and diagnoses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Routine health data were extracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children aged 18 years and under, presenting to 38 EDs in 16 European countries for the period January 2018 to May 2020, using predefined and standardized data domains. Observed and predicted numbers of ED attendances were calculated for the period February 2020 to May 2020. Poisson models and incidence rate ratios (IRRs), using predicted counts for each site as offset to adjust for case-mix differences, were used to compare age groups, diagnoses, and outcomes. Reductions in pediatric ED attendances, hospital admissions, and high triage urgencies were seen in all participating sites. ED attendances were relatively higher in countries with lower SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (IRR 2.26, 95% CI 1.90 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and in children aged <12 months (12 to <24 months IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89; 2 to <5 years IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.82; 5 to <12 years IRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.70; 12 to 18 years IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74; versus age <12 months as reference group, p < 0.001). The lowering of pediatric intensive care admissions was not as great as that of general admissions (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.45, p < 0.001). Lower triage urgencies were reduced more than higher triage urgencies (urgent triage IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.12; emergent and very urgent triage IRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.57; versus nonurgent triage category, p < 0.001). Reductions were highest and sustained throughout the study period for children with communicable infectious diseases. The main limitation was the retrospective nature of the study, using routine clinical data from a wide range of European hospitals and health systems. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in ED attendances were seen across Europe during the first COVID-19 lockdown period. More severely ill children continued to attend hospital more frequently compared to those with minor injuries and illnesses, although absolute numbers fell. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN91495258 https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91495258.

Risk factors for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children - A population-based cohort study of over 2 million children.

Background: Although severe acute COVID-19 is rare in children, SARS-CoV-2 infection can trigger the novel post-infectious condition multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). Increased knowledge on risk factors for MIS-C could improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of the condition and better guide targeted public health interventions. The aim of the study was to assess risk factors for MIS-C with the aim to identify vulnerable children. Methods: A register-based cohort study including all children and adolescents <19 years born in Sweden between March 1, 2001- December 31, 2020 was performed. Data on sociodemographic risk factors and comorbidities (sex, age, parental region of birth, parental education, asthma, autoimmune disease, chromosomal anomalies, chronic heart disease, chronic lung disease, obesity, life-limiting condition) were retrieved from national health and population registers. The outcome was MIS-C diagnosis according to the Swedish Pediatric Rheumatology Quality Register during March 1, 2020 - December 8, 2021.Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox regression analysis. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. Findings: Among 2 117 443 children included in the study, 253 children developed MIS-C, corresponding to an incidence rate of 6·8 (95% CI: 6·0-7·6) per 100 000 person-years. Male sex (HR 1·65, 95% CI: 1·28-2·14), age 5-11 years (adjusted HR 1·44, 95% CI: 1·06-1·95 using children 0-4 years as reference), foreign-born parents (HR 2·53, 95% CI: 1·93-3·34), asthma (aHR 1·49, 95% CI: 1·00-2·20), obesity (aHR 2·15, 95% CI: 1·09-4·25) and life-limiting conditions (aHR 3·10, 95% CI: 1·80-5·33) were associated with MIS-C. Children 16-18 years had a reduced risk for MIS-C (aHR 0·45, 95% CI: 0·24-0·85). Interpretation: We report increased risks for MIS-C in children with male sex, age 5-11 years, foreign-born parents, asthma, obesity, and life-limiting condition. Knowing these risk populations might facilitate identification of children with MIS-C and potentially guide targeted public health interventions. Nevertheless, the absolute risks for MIS-C were very low. Funding: Financial support was provided from the Swedish Research Council (grant no 2018-02640), the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (grant no 20210416), the Asthma and Allergy Association, Ake Wiberg foundation, the Samariten Foundation, the Society of Child Care, and Region Stockholm.

Private sector engagement in the COVID-19 response: experiences and lessons from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Private entities play a major role in health globally. However, their contribution has not been fully optimized to strengthen delivery of public health services. The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems and precipitated coalitions between public and private sectors to address critical gaps in the response. We conducted a study to document the public and private sector partnerships and engagements to inform current and future responses to public health emergencies. METHODS: This was a multi-country cross-sectional study conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda between November 2020 and March 2021 to assess responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a scoping literature review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with private and public health sector stakeholders. The literature reviewed included COVID-19 country guidelines and response plans, program reports and peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications. KIIs elicited information on country approaches and response strategies specifically the engagement of the private sector in any of the strategic response operations. RESULTS: Across the 4 countries, private sector strengthened laboratory systems, COVID-19 case management, risk communication and health service continuity. In the DRC and Nigeria, private entities supported contact tracing and surveillance activities. Across the 4 countries, the private sector supported expansion of access to COVID-19 testing services through establishing partnerships with the public health sector albeit at unregulated fees. In Senegal and Uganda, governments established partnerships with private sector to manufacture COVID-19 rapid diagnostic tests. The private sector also contributed to treatment and management of COVID-19 cases. In addition, private entities provided personal protective equipment, conducted risk communication to promote adherence to safety procedures and health promotion for health service continuity. However, there were concerns related to reporting, quality and cost of services, calling for quality and price regulation in the provision of services. CONCLUSIONS: The private sector contributed to the COVID-19 response through engagement in COVID-19 surveillance and testing, management of COVID-19 cases, and health promotion to maintain health access. There is a need to develop regulatory frameworks for sustainable public-private engagements including regulation of pricing, quality assurance and alignment with national plans and priorities during response to epidemics.

Positioning Africa's public health doctoral students to lead societal transformation and development.

The public health context is becoming increasingly more complex requiring highly trained professionals equipped with knowledge, competencies and tools to address or transform current and future challenges. Doctoral degree training offers an opportunity to build the capacity to detect and respond to such dynamic health challenges. In this paper, we discuss how Africa's public health doctoral students can be better positioned for the different career pathways to provide leadership on complex health and development challenges. Public health PhD graduates can take up careers in academia, civil service, private sector and civil society, among others. To thrive in these pathways, PhD training should equip them with knowledge, skills and competencies in leadership, creativity and social competence among others. To produce career-ready PhD graduates, there is need to rethink training curricula to build critical skills for diverse career pathways, introduce students to entrepreneurship, and enhance linkages between universities and industry. Experiential learning, exposure to networks and partnerships, postdoctoral programmes and mentorship and exchange programmes can further equip PhD students with key knowledge, skills and competencies. For students to position themselves for the different careers, they ought to plan their careers early, albeit with flexibility. Students should build their soft skills and embrace technology among other transferable competencies. By identifying potential career pathways and being positioned for these early, Africa can produce transformative PhD students on a path for success not just for themselves but for society at large, including in new environments such as that created by COVID-19.

Scaling the Children Immunization App (CIMA) to Support Child Refugees and Parents in the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Social Capital Approach to Scale a Smartphone Application in Zaatari Camp, Jordan.

BACKGROUND: Children vaccination is a key intervention for their survival, especially among refugees. Yet, children vaccination registration is done manually in refugees camps and there is no possibility to send reminders to parents to come back on time. We aimed to boost the parental registration of children's vaccination records on a Children Immunization app (CIMA) while also availing the parents with useful parenting skills under COVID-19-related stress. METHODS: We incorporated United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Parenting Skills under COVID-19 information material, through CIMA in Arabic and English languages. We recruited 1100 children in February-March 2021, through a community health promotion dissemination approach. A team of two nurses from the local population and two volunteers (one trained nurse and one trained social worker), from the camp, was formed. They promoted the CIMA app at two clinics and through households visits in Zaatari refugee camp. Qualitative data on impressions and observations of the interactions with the Zaatari camp community were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 1100 children, up to 15 months of age, eligible for vaccination were enrolled in CIMA, whereby the staff explained the content of the app in terms of vaccination schedule, health promotion materials for vaccination and parenting skills to their caregivers. During the household visits, the volunteers identified a total of 70 children that have incomplete history of vaccination records (n = 42/70 girls, 60%). Also, opportunities and challenges for scaling the app were documented. CONCLUSION: The scaling of CIMA as an innovative means of dissemination of risk and health information in challenging context such as refugee camps was feasible. In the context of vaccination needs for children, in refugee settings, such a need is more eminent, particularly in the context of COVID-19.

Global research priorities for COVID-19 in maternal, reproductive and child health: Results of an international survey.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's "Coordinated Global Research Roadmap: 2019 Novel Coronavirus" outlined the need for research that focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on pregnant women and children. More than one year after the first reported case significant knowledge gaps remain, highlighting the need for a coordinated approach. To address this need, the Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Working Group (MNCH WG) of the COVID-19 Clinical Research Coalition conducted an international survey to identify global research priorities for COVID-19 in maternal, reproductive and child health. METHOD: This project was undertaken using a modified Delphi method. An electronic questionnaire was disseminated to clinicians and researchers in three different languages (English, French and Spanish) via MNCH WG affiliated networks. Respondents were asked to select the five most urgent research priorities among a list of 17 identified by the MNCH WG. Analysis of questionnaire data was undertaken to identify key similarities and differences among respondents according to questionnaire language, location and specialty. Following elimination of the seven lowest ranking priorities, the questionnaire was recirculated to the original pool of respondents. Thematic analysis of final questionnaire data was undertaken by the MNCH WG from which four priority research themes emerged. RESULTS: Questionnaire 1 was completed by 225 respondents from 29 countries. Questionnaire 2 was returned by 49 respondents. The four priority research themes which emerged from the analysis were 1) access to healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2) the direct and 3) indirect effects of COVID-19 on pregnant and breastfeeding women and children and 4) the transmission of COVID-19 and protection from infection. CONCLUSION: The results of these questionnaires indicated a high level of concordance among continents and specialties regarding priority research themes. This prioritized list of research uncertainties, developed to specifically highlight the most urgent clinical needs as perceived by healthcare professionals and researchers, could help funding organizations and researchers to answer the most pressing questions for clinicians and public health professionals during the pandemic. It is hoped that these identified priority research themes can help focus the discussion regarding the allocation of limited resources to enhance COVID-19 research in MNCH globally.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.